Don't know, can't know: communicating risk and deeper uncertainty
Duration: 34 mins 13 secs
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| Description: |
Prof David Spiegelhalter (Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, University of Cambridge)
Monday 17 December 2012, 16:30-17:00 The Mathematics of Extreme Climatic Events |
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| Created: | 2012-12-19 10:41 |
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| Collection: | Mathematics of Planet Earth 2013 |
| Publisher: | Isaac Newton Institute |
| Copyright: | Spiegelhalter, D |
| Language: | eng (English) |
| Distribution: |
World
(downloadable)
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| Explicit content: | No |
| Aspect Ratio: | 16:9 |
| Screencast: | No |
| Bumper: | UCS Default |
| Trailer: | UCS Default |
| Abstract: | Mathematical models are useful whenever we admit we cannot predict precisely what is going to happen, for example in weather forecasting, insurance, nuclear safety, natural disasters, the effect of new medical interventions and, more controversially, in climate change and finance. Such models get so complex that multiple simulations of 'possible futures' may be necessary, which allow us to quantify chances of future events, which then need to be communicated to the public and policy-makers. But how good are these 'chances'? I shall look at the ways forecasts are provided and evaluated, and how we might try to communicate deeper uncertainties.
This talk is part of the UK Launch of Mathematics of Planet Earth 2013. More info @ www.newton.ac.uk/events/2013/mpe/ |
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