Quantifying Uncertainty in Assessment of Possible Exoplanet Biosignatures
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About this item
| Description: |
Peter Vickers; Durham University
9 February 2022 – 16:20 to 16:40 |
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| Created: | 2022-02-11 15:13 |
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| Collection: | The Role of Uncertainty in Mathematical Modelling of Pandemics |
| Publisher: | Isaac Newton Institute |
| Copyright: | Peter Vickers |
| Language: | eng (English) |
| Distribution: |
World
(downloadable)
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| Categories: |
iTunes - Science |
| Explicit content: | No |
| Aspect Ratio: | 16:9 |
| Screencast: | No |
| Bumper: | UCS Default |
| Trailer: | UCS Default |
| Abstract: | Suppose the latest generation of telescopes detect oxygen in the atmosphere of an exoplanet. Is that a ‘biosignature’? At one time it would have been called a biosignature (by some, at least), but not now. Now we have plausible abiotic stories to tell about the presence of oxygen in the atmosphere of a planet. But what about a case - such as an oxygen-methane disequilibrium - where we currently do not have a plausible abiotic story to tell? Should we call this a biosignature? Or should we expect that in due course we will develop a plausible abiotic story? In this talk I argue that quantifying the uncertainty requires us to quantify the extent to which we have explored the relevant possibility space, a very difficult thing to do. A Bayesian approach to quantifying the relevant uncertainty seems unhelpful. |
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