Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics: Mathematical and statistical challenges in understanding the dynamics of infectious disease pandemics
| Created: | 2020-05-11 10:35 |
|---|---|
| Institution: | Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences |
| Editors' group: | SMS Editors group for the Newton Institute |
| Description: | Organisers:
Deirdre Hollingsworth University of Oxford Julia Gog University of Cambridge Hans Heesterbeek Universiteit Utrecht Valerie Isham University College London, University of Warwick Denis Mollison Heriot-Watt University Phil O'Neill University of Nottingham Sylvia Richardson University of Cambridge Nigel Shadbolt University of Oxford Caroline Trotter University of Cambridge Alan Wilson The Alan Turing Institute Due to current events, this is a virtualised programme Programme Description Mathematical modelling has played an unprecedented role in informing public health policy on the control of the current COVID19 pandemic. Infectious disease modelling groups in the UK and globally have necessarily been working in ‘response’ mode to provide real-time modelling of the pandemic as it unfolds. However, this has left limited time for longer-term thinking about the challenges of understanding the dynamics of this particular pandemic. There is therefore an additional need for experts to discuss, explore and analyse surrounding issues including model assumptions, strategies for surveillance, contact tracing, use of diagnostics, and social distancing. A key aim of this programme is to address this need for longer-term thinking. This programme will support the activities of the Royal Society’s Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic (RAMP) programme through additional capacity to provide rapid assessment of strategies of immediate policy relevance. Furthermore, programme participants will provide critical assessment of extant models, considering alternatives and identifying improvements. This is vital to avoid duplication of effort and the potential for analyses which misinterpret key aspects of the epidemiology or make incorrect assumptions regarding underlying data. Finally, this programme will provide the space for considered, collaborative thinking, providing new ideas and directions, forging novel interdisciplinary links as well as reflecting on lessons learned for future pandemics with regard to planning, prevention and control. Through a range of virtual events this programme will bring together researchers from a broad range of disciplines, from applied epidemiology to fundamental mathematics. Events will include virtual study groups and webinars. It is hoped that this programme will provide a community of researchers to support the mathematical modelling work to address this current pandemic globally. Workshops Details of Workshops 1 and 2 are given below. Details for subsequent workshops will be posted in due course. Workshop 1: Models for an exit strategy, 11-15 May Following the successful reduction in transmission in many countries, questions of how and when to lift interventions are being asked. In this workshop we will address the models and underlying assumptions which would be used to inform these discussion by evaluating assumptions underlying possible exit strategies. This will include measurement and modelling of contacts, immunity, surveillance, and transmission route, and will include participants from both infectious disease modelling and other fields. This workshop will branch out into a number of different work streams over the following weeks. Models old and new, 18-22 May This workshop will examine, compare and discuss the approaches being currently used for modelling the pandemic with potential new approaches. Participants from outside the traditional epidemiological modelling field can bring experience of modelling, for example, behaviour, movement and social structure, as well as of computational optimisation and data visualisation. |
Media items
This collection contains 48 media items.
Media items
Challenges in modelling emerging new diseases
18 views
Metcalf, J
Friday 11th September 2020 - 15:45 to 16:15
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 15 Sep 2020
IHME covid19 model
22 views
Reiner, B
Friday 22nd May 2020 - 14:30 to 15:00
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Wed 27 May 2020
Spotting the next pandemic: prospecting or preparedness?
14 views
Holmes, E
Thursday 10th September 2020 - 09:30 to 10:15
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 10 Sep 2020
What will cause the next pandemic?
14 views
Woolhouse, M
Thursday 10th September 2020 - 10:15 to 11:00
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 10 Sep 2020
Whole-cost economic modelling of pandemics
20 views
van Manen, P
Thursday 11th June 2020 - 10:00 to 10:30
INI Seminar Room 2
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 12 Jun 2020
Zoonotic disease spill-over in the context of global change
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Redding, D
Thursday 24th September 2020 - 10:00 to 11:00
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 25 Sep 2020
Contact Tracing – Learning from Other Diseases
20 views
Dye, C
Monday 1st June 2020 - 11:00 to 12:30
INI Seminar Room 1
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 2 Jun 2020
Control theory in relation to epidemic interventions
14 views
Neve, B
Thursday 11th June 2020 - 11:00 to 11:10
INI Seminar Room 2
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 12 Jun 2020
Controlling epidemics of respiratory diseases: lessons from tuberculosis
8 views
Cohen, T
Friday 11th September 2020 - 15:15 to 15:45
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 15 Sep 2020
Covid-19: a phased lift of control and other exit strategies - (Explicit)
9 views
Coffeng, L
Monday 2nd November 2020 - 13:00 to 13:45
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 3 Nov 2020
Developing monitoring indicators and models for disease outbreaks in care homes
12 views
Hall, I
Thursday 21st May 2020 - 10:00 to 10:30
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Wed 27 May 2020
Discussion Introduced by Kevin McConway (Open University)
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McConway, K
Friday 25th September 2020 - 11:00 to 11:30
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 25 Sep 2020
Epidemiology and control in Hong Kong
93 views
Cowling, B
Tuesday 12th May 2020 - 11:30 to 12:30
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 12 May 2020
Existential Risk
27 views
Rees, M
Friday 25th September 2020 - 10:00 to 11:00
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 25 Sep 2020
Experience in Ireland
16 views
Murphy, B
Monday 14th September 2020 - 10:15 to 11:00
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Tue 15 Sep 2020
Expert elicitation of scientific uncertainties using Cooke's Classical Model: applicability to COVID-19 risk...
17 views
Aspinall, W
Wednesday 10th June 2020 - 14:05 to 14:35
INI Seminar Room 1
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 11 Jun 2020
Factors contributing to transmissibility
12 views
Lloyd-Smith, J
Friday 18th September 2020 - 16:15 to 17:00
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Sun 20 Sep 2020
Harnessing multiple models for outbreak management
17 views
Shea, K
Wednesday 10th June 2020 - 15:05 to 15:35
INI Seminar Room 1
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Thu 11 Jun 2020
How does science interface with policy
13 views
Watts, C
Wednesday 23rd September 2020 - 14:00 to 14:45
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Wed 23 Sep 2020
Inequality, real-time economics and future pandemics
8 views
Lenton, T
Thursday 24th September 2020 - 11:00 to 12:00
Institution: Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences
Created: Fri 25 Sep 2020